TradeHouse · Backtest-as-a-Service

Is your trading edge real, or just overfit?

Plug in your strategy and get a HULK-grade honesty report — deflated-Sharpe, PBO overfit probability, plus skew, tail and warehoused-risk flags — on a cross-venue resolved settlement tape no competitor has.

Get your free Strategy Health Score → See plans

The retail question nobody answers honestly

QuantConnect-style tools show you a pretty equity curve. They don't tell you the curve is curve-fit. We run the same overfit, skew and warehoused-risk checks our own live-capital validator (HULK) must pass before a single dollar trades — and hand you the verdict.

What the report flags

Overfit (PBO + deflated Sharpe)

Combinatorially-symmetric cross-validation probability of backtest overfitting (Bailey/López de Prado) + a deflated, multiple-testing-corrected Sharpe. The "is this just noise?" number.

Warehoused risk

Is the equity curve suspiciously smooth? Deferred / marked-to-market losses that haven't been realised yet.

Negative-skew tail risk

"Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" — a high win rate hiding rare catastrophic losses.

Martingale / averaging-down

Does the strategy scale into losers? The blow-up pattern that kills accounts the backtest never shows.

The moat: a tape no one else has

Everyone can backtest on price candles. We score your strategy against a cross-venue, resolved, settlement-truth prediction-market tape — Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless and more — normalized into one plane with real fees, latency slippage and adverse-selection skip deducted (near-live fidelity). Single-venue data exists; the resolved, calibration-grade, cross-venue tape does not — except here.

Start free: the Strategy Health Score

Paste a realised return series, get an honest 0–10 score + plain-English risk tags in seconds. No card, no data licence.

Try the free score →

Plans

Free
$0
  • Strategy Health Score (0–10)
  • Top risk tags
  • Synthetic-engine demo
Get score
Pro
$49/mo
  • Unlimited runs, full history
  • Full CSCV PBO report
  • Near-live fidelity (fees/latency/skip)
  • Forensic report card
Upgrade
Enterprise
$499/mo
  • Everything in Pro
  • Custom datasets + API
  • Walk-forward export
  • Forward-test integration
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